Monday, September 1, 2008

Matt Cronin's Day 9 Analysis

2-ROGER FEDERER V. 23-IGOR ANDREEV

Federer should get a well-deserved mental break in this match, for although Andreev has one of the most wicked forehands on tour and is having the hard-court tournament of his life, he's a predictable, straight-ahead player without a huge, flat serve or two-handed backhand that can poke holes in the Swiss' one-hander. The only way that Maria Kirilenko's boyfriend can win this match is to zone all day long with his forehand, occasionally sneak into net and return serve like he never has before.

Federer has played and beaten plenty of men whose main emphasis is crushing inside-out forehands and almost never loses to them. That's why he won't go down here, especially on hardcourts, as Andreev's balls don't hop as much on cement as they do on clay. Federer will triumph in straight sets.

3-NOVAK DJOKOVIC V. 15-TOMMY ROBREDO

Djokovic leapt a huge hurdle on Sunday night in the form of Marin Cilic and will have a small hill to climb here. While Robredo is a sound, workman-like player and did a terrific job tiring out Jo Tsonga, how exactly is he going to exhaust Djokovic, who this early in tournaments appears tireless? The Serb is a deceptively quick mover, is incredibly strong off both wings and rarely gets flummoxed on big points.

Fireballers like Cilic can occasionally hit through him, but Robredo doesn't have as much pop. What that means is that the Spaniard is going to have to try to push this match to the limits and hope that when he has to turn into a creative shotmaker, his game doesn't fail him. But this year, there is no indication that Djokovic can be had on hardcourts in a three-out-of-five-set match by anyone other than a completely in-form, top-10 player. Djokovic will grind through in straight sets.

5-NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO V. GILLES MULLER

This will not be a major show-court match, given both men's relatively low profile, but give credit to Muller for becoming the first player from tiny Luxembourg to reach the fourth round of a Slam, especially because he had to come through qualifying to do it. That's the definition of a hell of an effort.

Just when it seemed to be the proper time to write off Davydenko after a poor Olympic performance, the 2007 US Open semifinalist is here once again in the second week, using his footspeed and soft-handed counter-punching game to his benefit. Give this to Davydenko over the past two years: when he feels like stepping up and making himself heard at the majors, he's been very effective. Muller had to go over the wall to take a five-setter from Nicolas Almagro and is already six matches into his campaign. He won't have the legs to stay with the relentless Davydenko and will fall in three sets.

8-ANDY RODDICK V. 11-FERNANDO GONZALEZ

Don't get too overly excited about the Chilean's chances here, as Roddick owns a 7-3 record against him and has beaten him on every surface. Fernando may be able to wreak havoc against other foes with his titanic forehand, sharp backhand slice and wicked kick serve, but not as much against Roddick. He can't handle the American's serve and simply isn't mentally tough enough to match his loud screams.

Of course, Gonzalez can play with him from the baseline and, like Roddick, is a decent volleyer, but Gonzalez tends to get impatient when he's facing a barrage of aces and service winners, and then his game falls apart.

However, it's clear that the Chilean is on a bit of a roll, having grabbed the Olympic silver and playing cleanly here. He's always played Roddick close but has failed on most occasions to come through on the big points. If he can keep the match tight and play freely, this could be a highly entertaining slugfest. But he has to get off to a good start and not get overwhelmed by what will be a heavily pro-Roddick crowd. America 's top player is in too good of a headspace to go down to a known quantity such as Fernando, but Gonzo will grab a set and make it interesting. Nonetheless, Roddick will advance in four sets.

2-JELENA JANKOVIC V. 29-SYBILLE BAMMER

It's hard to see how Bammer is going to win this match post her record-setting, three-hour and five-minute win over Marion Bartoli. The mom has been no doubt inspiring, but she has to be tapped, and she enters this match with a 1-6 record against JJ. The Serbian has started to peak, has beaten her four straight times on hardcourts and isn't bothered by the Austrian's lefty spins. Bammer is going to have to come out firing early and never back off because she's not going to last three sets with the faster and, frankly, more talented Jankovic. She'll be unable to do it, and JJ will advance in a cakewalk

5-ELENA DEMENTIEVA V. 15-PATTY SCHNYDER

Do you like rivalries? How about this one between the 26-year-old Russian and the 29-year-old Swiss, which stands at 9-7 for Dementieva? It's an intriguing veteran's clash between a tricky lefty (Schnyder) and assiduous righty (Dementieva). They've played twice at the Slams, with Schnyder taking their Australian Open battle and Dementieva winning here in 2005. Dementieva has won their last three matches, including two this year at Dubai and Charleston.

It's really not that tough of a call, even though the Swiss has been clicking in Flushing, stepping in with her heavily-topspinned forehand, keeping her backhand deep and twisting her serve into the corners. Dementieva is playing at an extremely high level, perhaps the best stretch of her career. Schnyder is going to have to try to penetrate her backhand because the Russian is dominating off her forehand side. Plus, the Swiss must take some big cuts at Dementieva's second serves, which haven't been too weak this tournament but are very attackable from the ad court. But Schnyder can be hit through, and Dementieva is so deep in her zone that she will find the corners quickly and often. Dementieva will win in straight sets and then face Jankovic, which might end up being the match of the tournament.

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