At the outset of the tournament, these two semifinals were the most probable based on the form of the tour's top contenders this year, and unfortunately for the rest of the players and fortunately for hardcore fans of high-level tennis, the world will get to see the prognostications played out.
Britain is learning to love Murray, not as much as Scotland does, but at least the demanding fans there appreciate his grit, fight and smarts. As many analysts have noted, he's not Tim Henman or Greg Rusedski, meaning that he has obvious fire, the willingness to scrap in back-alley battles, enough pride to say that's he not merely satisfied with a being a second-tier player.
Murray has come into this tournament to win it, not merely to frustrate Nadal for a set or two. Even though he's 0-5 against him, he thinks that he has the right formula to best him by mixing it up and taking the Spaniard out of his rhythm, enticing him to overplay and underplay balls. The 21-year-old is confident that he can hurt him with his improved first serve, respond aggressively to Nadal's big lefty forehand to his backhand, put away his volleys at net and get a hold of the Spaniard's serves. He says that his return of serve is key, and it's the shot that let him down the most in losses at Wimbledon and Toronto.
But it's not that simple because, even if Murray does return better, it's not like he's going to be ripping outright down-the-line winners and immediately taking Nadal out of points. There's no question that the Scot is going to have to grind here, perhaps more than he did in taking out Juan Martin del Potro in a marathon quarterfinal. The Scot has pop, but he's not a huge hitter, and given that no man has been able to hit through and around Nadal this summer without a major battle, this contest is guaranteed to feature numerous points on the treadmill.
Nadal is in better shape at this US Open than he has been at any other time. Plus, he's playing quite well. He has already taken down two pumped-up U.S. fireballers in Sam Querrey and Mardy Fish, and his only loss this summer came to the super-talented grinder Djokovic in Cincinnati (where, by the way, Murray won the title), and that was after he came in tired after his triumph in Toronto. A few weeks later, he belted Djokovic with lefty hooks at the Olympics.
Murray is the one facing a giant question here, not Nadal. If the Spaniard sticks with the same formula that has worked against his squirrelly foe in the past -- work over his body until his legs buckle -- then he just might be in the driver's seat. Nadal has shown himself more than capable of playing both steely defense and high-octane offense and is more than aware of Murray's strengths and weaknesses. It's up to Murray to put on a consistent, A-plus performance, not Nadal, who can win this match by out-legging Murray with a B-plus level.
There's little doubt that the Scot is ready for primetime against other foes, but at this point, he hasn't shown the weaponry to chop down a soon-to-be legend during his best season ever. Maybe next year, but not in 2008. Nadal will reach his first US Open final in four sets.
2-ROGER FEDERER V. 3-NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Does it get much trickier than this pick, with a fragile Federer going up against a guy who is completely stressed out, post his confrontations with Tommy Robredo, Andy Roddick and the New York crowd? No, it doesn't. Djokovic has been in better form for much of the year, and the Swiss hasn't won a significant title and has fallen physically, technically and mentally behind the new No. 1 Nadal. The Serbian has been a step behind Rafa, too, but at least he owns two hard-court wins over him in 2008 and has won a Slam -- the Australian Open.
But Nadal is a non-factor here. It's who can actually play at a high-level consistently enough throughout the match. Federer has held on to his four titles here with his fingertips. Just when you expected him to bring out his heavenly form on a consistent basis, he's been threatened set after set by men who, last year, he would have stuck deep in his back pocket. He's shown flashes of brilliance but has lost some of his feel on his vaunted forehand and has been hesitant on his backhand. If it wasn't for his high-variety serve and willingness to climb all over the net and employ his sound volley, he might have already taken a quick exit.
But Djokovic hasn't exactly been steamrolling opponents, either, and as brilliant as he was at times against Robredo and Roddick off the ground, he has gone through mid-match funks. Part of that is because he has been dealing with [minor] injuries; part of that is because he isn't as accurate when he goes on offense as he is on defense and is still an evolving player; and part of that is because he feels mentally put upon, due to criticism from his fellow players and, to a certain degree, from the press.
What that means is, despite his rock-solid performance against Roddick with the weight of the world on his shoulders, his brain is a bit fried, and it's doubtful that he'll be able to play his best all the way through against Federer.
But what Djokovic can do is out-last him and out-steady him, so it will be up to the Swiss to put on the burners like he did in last year's final and not self-immolate. Federer has to take risks, perhaps more than last year, and take Djokovic out of his comfort zone. He has to charge more than he did last year, hurt him off the forehand side, and not give him too many easy looks. Really what he has to avoid is what occurred in Australia, when the Serbian pushed him so hard in long rallies that Federer gave in too early.
There's no doubt that Djokovic can more than play with Federer, can run with him and match him off the ground. He's already a proven commodity at the Slams, so there is little reason to worry about a Serbian choke. But what Djokovic hasn't proven is that he can overcome controversy within a tournament and still find his top level.
Federer, who is in the biggest slump of his career, badly needs this crown to save his year. The now emotive Swiss will hit warp speed when he needs it most and triumph in five sets. Roger v. Rafa 3 at the 2008 Slams awaits.
