Sunday, September 7, 2008

Matt Cronin's Women's Final Analysis

2-JELENA JANKOVIC V. 4-SERENA WILLIAMS

I've loved this match-up from the first time I saw it live, when they faced off in San Diego back in 2004 -- a three-set win for Serena. It matches Serena's power, sheer aggression and incredible willpower against Jankovic's speed, unique counter-punching ability and love for the big win over the more popular player. It's a face-to-face, serve against return, diva vs. diva match-up of the highest proportions.

Their rivalry is locked up at 3-3, with all their matches being played on outdoor hardcourts, with Jankovic running past her in the 2008 Australian Open quarters and Serena brushing her off in the 2008 Miami final. There are rarely sloppy points. There are almost always end-to-end rallies that end in screams and splits. There is always drama: smiles, grimaces, grunts and huge sighs of relief.

At 2006 LA, when Jankovic upset Serena in the semis, the two really went at each other. After Jankovic went up 5-2 in the second set, she hit a ball across the net that bounced near Serena's face. Both women said later that they realized it wasn't on purpose, but during the changeover, Serena asked the chair umpire to tell Jankovic not to do it any more because it almost hit her in the eye.

New York is the perfect venue for Jankovic to attempt to win her first Slam final. She says she loves the tournament the most because her super-extroverted personality cuddles into the cavernous confines of Ashe Stadium. The Serbian has more than a bit of a New Yorker in her, and even though she's European by birth, she is a long-time Florida resident who understands the true meaning of "showtime" more than many Americans.

But no more than Serena, who was also meant to close the curtains down on a play's final act. The 27-year-old Williams has been through numerous ups and downs at this tournament but has been a front-and-center actress since she broke out and won the title here in 1999. Despite her failure to win a major this year, she's worked harder in 2008 than she has in any other season and is finally seeing the fruits of her labor. She wants this title very badly and is now experienced enough to adjust her well-developed game to her opponent's various styles. She survived her five-time Wimbledon champion sister Venus in the quarters and then put a serious hurt on the red-hot Dinara Safina in the semis.

“Overall, she's the strongest player on the tour, together with her sister,” Jankovic said. “Nobody has the power that they have. I cannot compare with their strength. They're great athletes; I'm a little athlete. They move really well. They hit the ball so hard.

"So if you want to really win when they're in form, you really have to be on the top of your level, and you really have to go for every shot and really have to run a lot. So it will be difficult, but it's doable.”

Serena looks more than prepared to win her third US Open crown and ninth Slam overall but will have to go to hell and back to do it. What we don't know is whether in her first appearance in a Slam final, she will be able to impose the same relentless, hard-hitting, steady game that saw her step on Elena Dementieva in the semis. Jankovic is all of a sudden healthy, and although she's at a big disadvantage in the serving department, she's quicker than Serena is and will demand that Williams sprint with her all day long.

“I don't know too many people on the tour that can hang in there as much as she can,” Serena said. “She's playing well, and she's just going for glory here.”

This one will go three sets, or at least a deep two, and the winner will be the one who puts the right amount of stick on the ball at the closing moments and who finds her foe's weaknesses mid-way through the match.

If Jankovic was facing Safina, I'd pick her to win her first Slam, but Serena is about to enter the zone, and when she does, she'll drag JJ around by the ponytail until the Serbian finally gives in. As Serena said, “She has a lot of pressure to win her first Grand Slam, and I'm just enjoying every moment.”

Serena in three, foot-stomping sets.

Matt Cronin's Men's Semifinals Analysis

1-RAFAEL NADAL V. 6-ANDY MURRAY

At the outset of the tournament, these two semifinals were the most probable based on the form of the tour's top contenders this year, and unfortunately for the rest of the players and fortunately for hardcore fans of high-level tennis, the world will get to see the prognostications played out.

Britain is learning to love Murray, not as much as Scotland does, but at least the demanding fans there appreciate his grit, fight and smarts. As many analysts have noted, he's not Tim Henman or Greg Rusedski, meaning that he has obvious fire, the willingness to scrap in back-alley battles, enough pride to say that's he not merely satisfied with a being a second-tier player.

Murray has come into this tournament to win it, not merely to frustrate Nadal for a set or two. Even though he's 0-5 against him, he thinks that he has the right formula to best him by mixing it up and taking the Spaniard out of his rhythm, enticing him to overplay and underplay balls. The 21-year-old is confident that he can hurt him with his improved first serve, respond aggressively to Nadal's big lefty forehand to his backhand, put away his volleys at net and get a hold of the Spaniard's serves. He says that his return of serve is key, and it's the shot that let him down the most in losses at Wimbledon and Toronto.

But it's not that simple because, even if Murray does return better, it's not like he's going to be ripping outright down-the-line winners and immediately taking Nadal out of points. There's no question that the Scot is going to have to grind here, perhaps more than he did in taking out Juan Martin del Potro in a marathon quarterfinal. The Scot has pop, but he's not a huge hitter, and given that no man has been able to hit through and around Nadal this summer without a major battle, this contest is guaranteed to feature numerous points on the treadmill.

Nadal is in better shape at this US Open than he has been at any other time. Plus, he's playing quite well. He has already taken down two pumped-up U.S. fireballers in Sam Querrey and Mardy Fish, and his only loss this summer came to the super-talented grinder Djokovic in Cincinnati (where, by the way, Murray won the title), and that was after he came in tired after his triumph in Toronto. A few weeks later, he belted Djokovic with lefty hooks at the Olympics.

Murray is the one facing a giant question here, not Nadal. If the Spaniard sticks with the same formula that has worked against his squirrelly foe in the past -- work over his body until his legs buckle -- then he just might be in the driver's seat. Nadal has shown himself more than capable of playing both steely defense and high-octane offense and is more than aware of Murray's strengths and weaknesses. It's up to Murray to put on a consistent, A-plus performance, not Nadal, who can win this match by out-legging Murray with a B-plus level.

There's little doubt that the Scot is ready for primetime against other foes, but at this point, he hasn't shown the weaponry to chop down a soon-to-be legend during his best season ever. Maybe next year, but not in 2008. Nadal will reach his first US Open final in four sets.


2-ROGER FEDERER V. 3-NOVAK DJOKOVIC

Does it get much trickier than this pick, with a fragile Federer going up against a guy who is completely stressed out, post his confrontations with Tommy Robredo, Andy Roddick and the New York crowd? No, it doesn't. Djokovic has been in better form for much of the year, and the Swiss hasn't won a significant title and has fallen physically, technically and mentally behind the new No. 1 Nadal. The Serbian has been a step behind Rafa, too, but at least he owns two hard-court wins over him in 2008 and has won a Slam -- the Australian Open.

But Nadal is a non-factor here. It's who can actually play at a high-level consistently enough throughout the match. Federer has held on to his four titles here with his fingertips. Just when you expected him to bring out his heavenly form on a consistent basis, he's been threatened set after set by men who, last year, he would have stuck deep in his back pocket. He's shown flashes of brilliance but has lost some of his feel on his vaunted forehand and has been hesitant on his backhand. If it wasn't for his high-variety serve and willingness to climb all over the net and employ his sound volley, he might have already taken a quick exit.

But Djokovic hasn't exactly been steamrolling opponents, either, and as brilliant as he was at times against Robredo and Roddick off the ground, he has gone through mid-match funks. Part of that is because he has been dealing with [minor] injuries; part of that is because he isn't as accurate when he goes on offense as he is on defense and is still an evolving player; and part of that is because he feels mentally put upon, due to criticism from his fellow players and, to a certain degree, from the press.

What that means is, despite his rock-solid performance against Roddick with the weight of the world on his shoulders, his brain is a bit fried, and it's doubtful that he'll be able to play his best all the way through against Federer.

But what Djokovic can do is out-last him and out-steady him, so it will be up to the Swiss to put on the burners like he did in last year's final and not self-immolate. Federer has to take risks, perhaps more than last year, and take Djokovic out of his comfort zone. He has to charge more than he did last year, hurt him off the forehand side, and not give him too many easy looks. Really what he has to avoid is what occurred in Australia, when the Serbian pushed him so hard in long rallies that Federer gave in too early.

There's no doubt that Djokovic can more than play with Federer, can run with him and match him off the ground. He's already a proven commodity at the Slams, so there is little reason to worry about a Serbian choke. But what Djokovic hasn't proven is that he can overcome controversy within a tournament and still find his top level.

Federer, who is in the biggest slump of his career, badly needs this crown to save his year. The now emotive Swiss will hit warp speed when he needs it most and triumph in five sets. Roger v. Rafa 3 at the 2008 Slams awaits.

Women's singles final to feature performance by Grammy Award Winner Anita Baker

The Women’s Singles Final of the 2008 US Open will feature Grammy award winning performer Anita Baker.

Anita Baker will sing “America the Beautiful” prior to the prime time Women’s Singles Final. Considered one of the most successful female singers and songwriters in music history, she has won a total of eight Grammy awards. Baker’s sixth original album, My Everything, reached #4 on the Billboard 200 chart despite being released 10 years after her previous album. Baker's ongoing tour, which will continue throughout this fall and winter, is entitled, "An Evening With Anita Baker.”

The Women’s Singles Final will be broadcast live on CBS in prime time for the eighth consecutive year, beginning at 9:00 p.m. on Sunday, September 7. This is a rescheduled time due to inclement weather.

American Boy and Girl Make It to Junior Finals

American boys’ qualifier Devin Britton and girls’ wild-card CoCo Vandeweghe advanced to the finals of the US Open junior tournament on Saturday indoors, the first time in 16 years that an American boy and girl have made finals in the same year.

Devin Britton became the unlikeliest finalist in the tournament’s 36-year history as he came back to beat unseeded Serbian Filip Krajinovic, 1-6, 6-4, 6-2, in a semifinal match played indoors 30 minutes from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center at the Sound Shore Indoor Tennis Club in Port Chester, N.Y., because of rain.

Britton will play Wimbledon winner Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria in the final. The No. 3 seed Dimitrov beat Tsung-Hua Yang, the top-seeded player from Taipei who won the French Open juniors, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

Vandeweghe beat France’s Kristina Mladenovic, 6-2, 7-6 (5) and will play Venezuela’s Gabriela Paz in the final. Paz beat No. 2-seeded American Melanie Oudin, 6-4, 6-4, preventing the first all-American girls’ final since Lindsay Davenport beat Julie Steven in 1992.

The last time both an American boy and girl made the final was also 1992, when Brian Dunn won the boys’ title and Davenport the girls’ championship. Ironically, Vandeweghe is currently being coached by Davenport’s long-time mentor Robert Van’t Hof.

Both the boys’ and girls’ finals will be played Sunday at noon.

Britton called his first set on Saturday “scary,” as Krajinovic came out firing. “He was hitting all the lines by two inches,” Britton said. “He didn’t miss a shot the entire set.”

But Britton settled down and opened the second set with an important break, as both players held the rest of the set. Britton once again broke to open the third set, eventually taking a commanding 5-0 lead. He was then broken at love serving for the match. “Got a little nervous there,” he said. “Didn’t hit one first serve or make any shots that game.”

Krajinovic held his serve before Britton ended it with an emphatic ace giving him a trip to the US Open final.

Britton’s future appears bright when you consider names, like David Nalbandian (1998), Jarkko Neiminen (1999), Andy Roddick (2000), Gilles Muller (2001), Richard Gasquet (2002), Jo-Wilifried Tsonga (2003) and Andy Murray (2004) all have won US Open junior titles over the past 10 years.

What makes Britton’s final's run at the Open even more remarkable is the fact that he still has another year left in the juniors. Britton, a 17-year-old IMG Bollettieri Academy player from Jackson, Miss., has yet to make a decision about his future. “If it was Devin’s decision, he would have already turned pro,” said Britton’s mother, Cindy. “We just can’t continue with all this travel financially. We’re not sure yet what we’re going to do.”

Vandeweghe, a 16-year-old who has turned professional and played in the main draw at the Open last week, continued to serve well, playing in front of 25 friends and family members, including her uncle Kiki Vandeweghe, the former UCLA and NBA star.

She said playing indoors did affect her. “It did throw me off a bit. It was weird to look up to serve and see something, and then the next serve you’re looking into the lights. I had four or five doubles faults, which was terrible.”

Vandeweghe, who is attempting to become the first American since Tara Snyder in 1995 to win the US Open junior title, got a good look at Mladenovic’s second serve on set point and ripped a forehand down the line for a winner and spot in the final.

“I was so happy she missed her first serve. I’m a risk taker, not some backboard pusher,” she said after the match of her aggressive style of play.

She’s also calmer on the court than she used to be. “When I was younger, I broke my share of racquets,” she said. “I try to be calm and relaxed out there. I figure why waste the energy getting upset.”

Paz played Oudin tough all day, mostly earning her points on first-serve consistency and patience from the baseline all day. “I just had the attitude to go for it in the first set,” Paz said. “In the second set, I got a little tight. She plays very deep and is very consistent, so I had to wait for her to make the mistakes.”

Oudin, obviously disappointed she won’t get a shot at Vandeweghe on Sunday, had never lost to Paz. “Even though I had beaten her three times before, this is the US Open. Everyone brings their best. She was the better player today. She didn’t miss anything.”

Oudin said playing indoors didn’t affect her style of play. “We both had to play it. It was anyone’s game out there.”

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